EBook Problems Limits LLN

From Socr

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Revision as of 22:21, 24 January 2009

EBook Problems Set - Law of Large Numbers

Problem 1

Your friend is in Vegas playing Keno, and he has noticed that some numbers have been coming up more frequently than others. He declares that the other numbers were "due" to come up, and puts all of his money on those numbers. Is this a correct assessment?

• Choose one answer.

(a) Yes, the Law of Averages says that the numbers that haven't shown up will now come up more often, because the probabilities will even out in the end.

(b) No, this is a misconception, because random phenomena do not "compensate" for what happened in the past.

(c) No, the game is probably broken, and the other numbers won't be coming up more frequently.

(d) Yes, the more often a certain number doesn't come up, its probability of coming up next turn increases.

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